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U.S. News & World Report article concludes that “more transactions will signal if the housing market is fairly valued.”
— Patrick S. Duffy, U.S. News Senior Real Estate Economist
WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES, January 5, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ — A 2024 housing market forecast for the United States published by U.S. News & World Report and written by MetroIntelligence predicts a gradually unfreezing housing market as mortgage rates decline. The data is sourced from several authoritative sources, including the U.S. News Housing Market Index, an interactive platform providing a data-driven overview of the housing market nationwide.
“Whether it was a soaring stock market defying constant expectations of doom, a job market refusing to quit despite higher interest rates from the Fed or a housing market largely frozen in place due to steep mortgage rates, 2023 was full of surprises,” writes MetroIntelligence principal Patrick S. Duffy, who also serves as U.S. News Senior Real Estate Economist. “In 2024, we’ll find out if the housing market can enjoy the same type of soft landing seemingly engineered by the Federal Reserve for the U.S. economy.”
Among the key findings:
• Even if mortgage rates decline closer to 6% in 2024, many sellers will delay listing their homes for sale due to this “lock-in effect.” This effect is unlikely to unravel on a larger scale until rates retreat below 5% – or prices adjust accordingly.
• As housing markets slowly unfreeze along with lower mortgage rates, local markets which have become increasingly disconnected from local incomes may be more likely to see price declines.
• Due to an ongoing supply glut in certain markets, renters will gain the upper hand as new apartments are completed and landlords compete for the same demand pool
Other factors cited by the report include the potential of higher inflation returning given a tight labor market for services, rising price tags for climate-related disasters, emerging geopolitical tensions and numerous elections around the world – the most in recorded human history – any of which could lead to their own unexpected events. In turn, these events could impact consumer sentiment, supply chains and financial markets.
The forecast assumes that the national economy avoids a recession and inflation that continues to slowly decline throughout the year. In turn, lower mortgage rates could lead to a more robust housing market with more listings and determine if home prices are fairly valued or overpriced.
The entire report can be viewed at https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/housing-market-index/articles/2024-housing-market-predictions.
About MetroIntelligence:
MetroIntelligence is an economics consulting firm focused on real estate and land use, and also provides public relations and corporate communications services to clients working in homebuilding, real estate development, finance and sales. Company founder and principal Patrick S. Duffy began contributing to U.S. News & World Report in 2022 and currently serves as their Senior Real Estate Economist, focusing on trends related to residential and commercial real estate markets. For more information on MetroIntelligence, visit https://www.linkedin.com/in/metrointelligence/.
About the U.S. News Housing Market Index:
The U.S. News Housing Market Index is an interactive tool that synthesizes housing market perspectives and predictions at the national level plus for over 50 of the top U.S. markets. The index also includes a tool providing forecasts on building permits for the top 50+ U.S. markets, while a robust sentiment analysis feature interprets 500 media pieces related to housing each month. The U.S. News Housing Market Index leverages IBM Watson® Natural Language Understanding to help enable U.S. News to interpret and synthesize large volumes of housing data for easy viewing. For more information on the U.S. News Housing Market Interface, visit https://realestate.usnews.com/housing-market-index/interface.
Sean McNerney
MetroIntelligence
+1 562-246-6070
smcnerney@metrointel.com
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