The country’s factory output, which is measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) reduce by 0.3 per cent on-year to 133.5 during the month of December 2019, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
According to data “The IIP had grown by 2.5 per cent in December 2018. The industrial growth during the period of April-December 2019 rise 0.5 per cent from the corresponding period year ago. The IIP growth was 4.7 per cent during the same period last year, the data showed”.
As per the data, the manufacturing sector output declined by 1.2 per cent on-year to 134.2, and the electricity generation slipped by 0.1 per cent to 150.2. Mining sector output, however, grew by 5.4 per cent on-year to 120.6. Retail inflation (CPI) spikes 7.59 per cent
The retail inflation, which is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to a 68-month high after it rose 7.59 per cent in the month of January 2020, a separate data by MoSPI showed.The CPI was 7.35 per cent in December 2019 and 1.97 per cent in January last year.
For the second month in a row, the retail inflation data exceeded the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper margin of 6 per cent. The government has mandated the central bank to keep inflation within the range of 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. Prior to this high, retail inflation had witnessed a spike of 8.33 per cent in May 2014.
The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) or the inflation in the food basket rose to 13.63 per cent in January 2020 against 14.19 per cent in the preceding month. In January 2019, the CFPI saw a negative growth of (-)2.24 per cent, the MoSPI data showed. In its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting held last week, the RBI had kept its key interest rates unchanged while maintaining an “accommodative stance”.
The retail inflation has risen primarily due to a spike in vegetable prices that saw a 50.19 per cent year-on-year rise in January 2020. This apart, the pulses and products segment saw a rise of 16.71 per cent, while that of meat and fish rose 10.50 per cent and egg prices gained 10.41 per cent.
Market Live: Sensex reach to 1,100 points, Nifty below 11,300.
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The company’s board of directors at its meeting held on February 28, 2020, declared interim dividend of Rs 3.50 per equity share.
More than 300 BSE stocks hit 52-week low today including IndusInd Bank, ITC, Hero MotoCorp, Wipro, M&M, ONGC, L&T, Hindalco Industries, Vedanta etc.
HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bandhan Bank and Info Edge will be included in the Futures & Options segment effective February 28, and anecdotal evidence suggests that after such inclusion most stocks rise in double digits.
Supreme Industries declares dividend: The company board at its meeting held on February 28, declared interim dividend of 10 per equity share.
Rupee at day’s low: The Indian rupee is trading at day’s low level at 71.97 per dollar, falling 42 paise versus previous day’s close of 71.55.
Investors lost Rs 5 lakh crore: Domestic market extended the sell-off on the sixth day on February 28 with Nifty slipped below 11,300. Meanwhile, investor wealth eroded by nearly Rs 5 lakh crore as equity markets crashed tracking global equity selloff amid rising uncertainty over the economic impact of coronavirus outbreak.
The coronavirus outbreak which has spread much beyond China has caused a major shift from riskier assets to safe havens. Gold has rallied to 7-year high while US 10-year bond yield has dropped to record low level. On the other hand, US DJIA index has slumped over 8 percent from recent highs while economically sensitive commodities have plunged with crude oil testing 1-year low.
Sensex declined by 143 Points, Nifty by 45 due to Coronavirus
The expiry of domestic derivatives contracts too kept market volatile, traders said “Extending its losses for the fifth consecutive session, equity benchmark Sensex lower by 143 points on Thursday tracking a global selloff amid rising fears of the coronavirus outbreak turning into a pandemic and hitting the world economy”.
After plunging over 465.69 points during the day, the 30-share BSE barometer finally settled 143.30 points, or 0.36 per cent, lower at 39,745.66.Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty fell 45.20 points or 0.39 per cent to end at 11,633.30.
ONGC was the top loser in the Sensex pack, followed by HCL Tech, SBI, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Hero MotoCorp and M&M. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, Titan, Asian Paints and Axis Bank led the rise in chart.
The Head Fundamental Research (Investment Services) – AVP Equity Research, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers Mr Narendra Solanki said that “Market opened in negative tracking its Asian peers as the rapid global spread of the coronavirus kept investors on the edge and made them seek safety in gold and bonds”.
India is at risk of getting severely impacted by the epidemic economically because of its high reliance on Chinese imports for various goods, he noted.
Benchmarks also remained volatile on account of monthly expiry of derivatives contracts, he said, adding that sentiment remained sluggish amid reports that GDP growth is likely to stay flat at 4.5 per cent in October-December 2019.
The government’s GDP estimate for the December quarter is scheduled to be released on Friday.
Traders said “Further, relentless selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) spooked retail investors. According to provisional data available with stock exchanges, so far this week, FPIs have offloaded stocks worth a whopping Rs 6,812.57 crore on a net basis.
Sectorally, BSE realty, oil and gas, metal, teck, IT, industrials, energy, telecom and auto indices ended up to 2.09 percent lower, while consumer durables and healthcare settled on a positive note. Broader BSE midcap and smallcap indices fell up to 0.83 percent. Bourses in Seoul and Tokyo ended with significant losses, while Shanghai and Hong Kong closed with gains.
Sensex break by 40,000 Nifty falls 1%
The S&P BSE Sensex broke 40,000 levels on the downside on February 26, while the Nifty 50 fell below its 200-day exponential moving average placed around 11,720.
Eventually, market barometer Sensex closed with a loss of 392 points, or 0.97 percent, at 39,888.96 while the Nifty index finished at 11,678.50, down 119 points, or 1.01 percent.
Barring BSE Telecom – which ended with a mild gain of 0.25 percent – all sectoral indices ended in the red, with Realty, Auto and Capital Goods falling over 2 percent each.
Asian shares fell, tracking losses in the US markets overnight. The sharp selloff pushed the yields on safe-haven treasuries to record lows. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both shed more than 3 percent in their fourth straight session of losses.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries teetered close to record lows and gold rose as worries about the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak boosted safe-haven assets, said a Reuters report.
Chinese shares fell by 0.83 percent, while shares in South Korea, rattled by a sudden rise in virus infections, fell 1.28 percent.
The United States has asked Americans to “begin preparing for coronavirus to spread within the country as outbreaks in Iran, South Korea and Italy escalated and fears that the epidemic would hurt global growth rattled markets, said a Reuters report”.
The report said that ” The World Health Organization says the epidemic has peaked in China, but concern that its spread is accelerating in other countries is likely to keep investors on the edge. The virus that originated in China had spread to about 30 countries”.
The effects of the coronavirus outbreak are likely to reverberate beyond China as most major economies in the region are expected to either slow down significantly, halt or shrink outright in the current quarter, a Reuters poll has found.
The poll said, “Many Asian economies, which were just limping back to growth from the spillover effects of the 18-month long US-China trade dispute, were again dealt a blow by the outbreak, which has shut down businesses and cities”.
Nifty formed a Bearish candle on the daily charts. It slipped below its 200-DMA placed at 11,684 on daily charts.
The index has been falling from February 20. This is the fourth consecutive session when Nifty registered a negative close. The indicator gave a ‘sell’ signal on the daily charts while MACD gave a bearish crossover on February 24 which suggests that the near term trend is likely to be on the downside.
Coronavirus lower TVS Motor’s production by 10% in Feb
TVS Motor has said that “the outbreak of pandemic Coronavirus in China will lead to 10 percent low in the planned production in February”.
Further, it said “Coronavirus has led to an impact on the supply of certain components for the production of BS-VI vehicles. China is a key part of the global automotive supply chain.”
Before it said, the country’s largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp also said that the company’s production will hit by around 10 per cent during the month of February.
The company said “While the company’s direct dependency on China is limited for components, some Tier II suppliers have been impacted adversely which will lead to 10 percent drop in the planned production in February 2020. All efforts are on to normalize this at the earliest.”
KN Radhakrishnan, Director & CEO, TVS Motor Company, said, “At TVS Motor Company, we have completely transitioned to BS-VI in the month of January 2020. To minimize the impact on the production of BS-VI vehicles, we are consistently monitoring developments with those of our suppliers who are sourcing certain components from China. Parallelly, we are also exploring suppliers in other regions and are looking to localize within India. As a customer-centric organization, our endeavour is to ensure that the impact on our customers and operations is minimal.”
According to Crisil estimate, around 18 per cent of automobile component imports and nearly 30 percent of tyre imports come from China. Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA) says India imported around $ 4.2 billion of auto components in 2019 from China.
Crisil analyst says “But lack of even a single critical component such as printed circuit boards can hurt an OEM’s ability to manufacture vehicles. The current slowdown and adequate stock of Bharat Stage (BS)-IV vehicles serves as a relief for domestic OEMs albeit production of BSVI vehicles, to be sold effective April 1, 2020, could get disrupted if lockdown in China persists”.
Vinnie Mehta, director general, ACMA earlier said that at present the situation will not impact OEMS, but if the trend continues for the next 3 weeks or one month then the impact will be felt.
Currency Futures in India | USD INR Futures
Meaning of futures: Future is a type of derivative financial instrument that provides an opportunity for the investors to exchange an underlying asset at a fixed price at a future date which is predetermined today. The investor can trade the underlying asset on the expiry date at the predetermined price regardless of what the current market price is. These are used for speculation or hedging purposes.
Types of Futures contracts
Various types of futures are available in the market:
- Currency futures
- Commodity futures
- Stock index futures
- Interest rate futures
- Individual stock futures
Meaning of currency futures
Currency future is an exchange-traded futures contract that determines the price of one currency at which another currency can be bought or sold at a future date. These are legally binding contracts. They are usually used for hedging or speculation activities.
Are currency futures popular in India?
The currency futures were introduced in 2008 in India and since then, the value and volumes have increased steadily. In 2019-20, NSE posted a total turnover of Rs. 41,10,022.58 crores in the currency futures section while the total turnover for the currency derivatives was around Rs. 82,67,678.23 crores. The development in the segment can be measured by the steady increase in the turnover over the years. The total turnover in the currency futures segment in 2008-09 was Rs. 1,62,272.43 crores which rose to Rs. 37,65,105.33 crores in 2012-13 and then to Rs. 46,54,927.35 in 2018-19. The growth in the currency futures market shows the higher demand for price transparency among the investors. The traders in India including both exporter and importer, in genuine have the need to hedge their risk against currency fluctuation.
How to trade in currency futures?
NSE and BSE both have a currency futures segment. Even the Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India (MSEI) has a currency futures segment. All the leading brokers play a major role in this market and one can trade through them. It is very similar to trading in the stock market, the only difference is that the underlying asset, in this case, is a currency cross, i.e., USD INR, instead of normal stocks. Trading can also be done through a trading app of any of the brokers.
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